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Assessing the Dutch Disease Impact on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate's Performance in Algeria 1990-2016 / MÂACHI, Malika
Titre : Assessing the Dutch Disease Impact on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate's Performance in Algeria 1990-2016 Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : MÂACHI, Malika, Auteur ; Derbal, abd el kader, Auteur Editeur : Université tlemcen Année de publication : 2019 Importance : 250 p. Présentation : ill. Format : 30 cm Accompagnement : cd Langues : Anglais (eng) Résumé : this study aims to examine the Dutch disease theory, and assess its impact on the performance of equilibrium real exchange rate in Algeria over the period of 1990–2016 since it is highly dependent on the oil revenues. To do so, we first provided a literature review of the real exchange rate, Dutch disease and the trade balance, as well as their reality. We proceeded then to perform the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model to test our two underlying hypotheses. As expected, our estimates suggest that the performance of the long-run real exchange rate depends, essentially, having significant positive signs, on technological progress (Lprod), government spending (Lgs), capital flows (Lcf), informal employment (Lemp) and terms of trade (Ltot). However, oil rents (Loilrent) and trade openness (Lopen1) are found to be having a significantly negative impact on Lreer, which is not in line with a priori expectations, i.e. the failure to meet the main condition for the Dutch disease presence (Spending Effect). Moreover, the resource movement effect captured by the share of employment in the informal sector cannot be confirmed. Therefore, although the industrial and the agricultural sectors are deteriorating, there is no evidence of Dutch disease in Algeria. Moreover, the short-run elasticities are found to be highly significant. The increase in all variables causes the real exchange rate to appreciate, but the increase in the first lagged variables, Lemp, Ltot, Lcf and Lgs, leads to a real depreciation. Thus, having some symptoms of the Dutch disease does not imply its presence. Finally, by calculating the misalignment degree, we are able to detect thirteen episodes that distinguish between the DZD overvaluation and undervaluation. The former occurred in 1990, 1993 and over the period of 1997–2002, and the latter occurred between 1991-92, 1995-96, 2003-07, in 2009, 2011 and between 2015-16, while the DZD currency was aligned in both 1994 and 2010. Accordingly, the hypotheses are verified and ,thus, the study’s objective is achieved. Assessing the Dutch Disease Impact on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate's Performance in Algeria 1990-2016 [texte imprimé] / MÂACHI, Malika, Auteur ; Derbal, abd el kader, Auteur . - Université tlemcen, 2019 . - 250 p. : ill. ; 30 cm + cd.
Langues : Anglais (eng)
Résumé : this study aims to examine the Dutch disease theory, and assess its impact on the performance of equilibrium real exchange rate in Algeria over the period of 1990–2016 since it is highly dependent on the oil revenues. To do so, we first provided a literature review of the real exchange rate, Dutch disease and the trade balance, as well as their reality. We proceeded then to perform the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model to test our two underlying hypotheses. As expected, our estimates suggest that the performance of the long-run real exchange rate depends, essentially, having significant positive signs, on technological progress (Lprod), government spending (Lgs), capital flows (Lcf), informal employment (Lemp) and terms of trade (Ltot). However, oil rents (Loilrent) and trade openness (Lopen1) are found to be having a significantly negative impact on Lreer, which is not in line with a priori expectations, i.e. the failure to meet the main condition for the Dutch disease presence (Spending Effect). Moreover, the resource movement effect captured by the share of employment in the informal sector cannot be confirmed. Therefore, although the industrial and the agricultural sectors are deteriorating, there is no evidence of Dutch disease in Algeria. Moreover, the short-run elasticities are found to be highly significant. The increase in all variables causes the real exchange rate to appreciate, but the increase in the first lagged variables, Lemp, Ltot, Lcf and Lgs, leads to a real depreciation. Thus, having some symptoms of the Dutch disease does not imply its presence. Finally, by calculating the misalignment degree, we are able to detect thirteen episodes that distinguish between the DZD overvaluation and undervaluation. The former occurred in 1990, 1993 and over the period of 1997–2002, and the latter occurred between 1991-92, 1995-96, 2003-07, in 2009, 2011 and between 2015-16, while the DZD currency was aligned in both 1994 and 2010. Accordingly, the hypotheses are verified and ,thus, the study’s objective is achieved. Exemplaires (1)
Code-barres Cote Support Localisation Section Disponibilité T09147 EDOC332-03/ 01 Thèse قاعة الأطروحات 332 Économie financière Exclu du prêt